Do bookmaker odds tell the truth? For every finished match in our archive we compare the closing price's implied probability with what actually happened. This report recalculates automatically as results accumulate — sample sizes are always shown, and small samples mean noisy numbers.
| Implied probability band | Samples | Avg implied | Actual win rate | Gap | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 0 | 10% | 표본 부족 | — | |
| 20–33% | 0 | 27% | 표본 부족 | — | |
| 33–50% | 0 | 42% | 표본 부족 | — | |
| 50–65% | 0 | 57% | 표본 부족 | — | |
| 65–80% | 0 | 73% | 표본 부족 | — | |
| 80–100% | 0 | 90% | 표본 부족 | — |
Reading it: if the 65–80% band actually wins ~70% of the time, the market is honest there. Persistent gaps = value zones. Total samples so far: 0 (grows daily).
Methodology: closing price = last pre-kickoff snapshot, averaged across tracked bookmakers. Win-market selections only. Full raw data: pick archive · results. 18+ — information, not advice.